Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.893377 19.391628 22.320311 26.057166 30.773303 36.634250 44.646724
2025-02-16 14.134919 17.253553 21.271337 26.997287 35.258098 47.304108 67.443898
2025-02-23 12.313247 15.606131 20.107673 27.011690 37.961934 56.014469 91.864797
2025-03-02 11.013365 14.354221 19.131028 26.892495 40.203919 64.652592 122.020146
2025-03-09 10.138129 13.533475 18.581366 27.219245 43.158524 75.750258 167.571472
2025-03-16 9.150103 12.408442 17.380194 26.194088 43.321845 81.257027 205.363788
2025-03-23 8.533505 11.764036 16.830236 26.160082 45.361473 92.031622 276.883544
2025-03-30 7.807590 10.874434 15.767675 25.001812 44.738361 95.875159 329.880001
2025-04-06 7.134154 10.009477 14.654247 23.576163 43.185295 96.526625 371.285202
2025-04-13 6.599610 9.325468 13.782191 22.493474 42.181407 98.482180 428.810502
2025-04-20 6.722177 9.710822 14.785743 25.275879 51.281265 139.976248 1044.097147
2025-04-27 6.566001 9.616871 14.922803 26.295293 56.307979 172.835629 2231.146528
2025-05-04 6.108887 8.998225 14.073205 25.117553 55.059749 178.348643 3164.092203
2025-05-11 5.941139 8.866490 14.124311 25.984912 60.304030 224.558889 13154.670531
2025-05-18 5.692560 8.572388 13.831602 25.999633 62.916376 261.690823 114946.326707
2025-05-25 5.453943 8.278087 13.508561 25.886797 65.105159 301.981077 NaN
2025-06-01 5.278340 8.084050 13.364924 26.195950 69.011807 368.743392 NaN
2025-06-08 4.996297 7.678381 12.757828 25.225697 67.688610 383.841917 NaN
2025-06-15 4.822619 7.461666 12.520907 25.193497 70.177722 452.197138 NaN
2025-06-22 4.567917 7.081094 11.915732 24.096114 67.855486 454.640566 NaN
2025-06-29 4.307180 6.678231 11.241102 22.743743 64.120218 431.396006 NaN
2025-07-06 4.090007 6.348301 10.702631 21.715439 61.600280 423.910593 NaN
2025-07-13 4.190483 6.618475 11.451240 24.355882 76.893939 826.083389 NaN